Burma Dialogue

The international community should not be lulled into complacency by such self-serving rhetoric. The sad end of the saffron uprising, brought about not by compromise but by repression, offers a window of opportunity that the international community must seize. The world should finally wake up to the fact that Burma's suffering under its military dictatorship can no longer be swept under the carpet. If the sacrifices of the monks and other brave citizens of Burma are not to be in vain, the momentum of international pressure must continue.

Archarya makes a good case as he continues in this article to agree with ASEAN that sanctions will only further isolate the military junta in Burma, giving proxy to the predator to continue to "govern" in the way it see's fit. With many more dead than the military is officially declaring, now the world is getting an attuned taste of the complex nature of Burma's relationship with the outside world.

The contradictions between applauding ASEAN for expressing "revulsion" at the military's crack down on the peaceful protest and the continued declaration by activist who say ASEAN is far too reticent in its approach to Burma is a fair demonstration of East West contradictions.

Chinese diplomats hold firm that the Western approach to Burma will create more conflict, but China's Ambassador to the UN, Wang Guangya said "we want to see them making progress on the road of democratization". It will certainly take the Eastern approach some time to reconcile its financial interest in Burma as well.

Many different views were also expressed concerning Aung San Suu Kyi's meeting with government official Aung Kyi.

While the meeting appeared on the immediate surface to be an attempt appease international calls for talks with Daw Suu Kyi and the NLD, this was just a photo opportunity. Which in the end is an obvious (and maybe brilliant) piece of anti-democratic propaganda. Why? Because the international attention span will not stay focused long enough to see through the junta trying to paint Daw Suu as the "unreasonable one". The junta is reported to have requested Daw Suu drop her demands on many issues, including international sanctions and acknowledging the legitimacy of the government. Some may argue this move recognizes the importance of Daw Suu. Look again at that photo. Where do things stand today? Aung San Suu Kyi is still under house arrest the people of Burma are still under the same oppressive hand and yet the junta has these pictures to throw around which appear to have Aung San Suu Kyi in her own contradictions. We all know she will never negotiate with the junta. But in the end, these pictures attempt to symbolize just that.

The junta is preserving it's role within the expectation of some type of "transitional phase" which caters to international demands as well as its own decoy defensive flagship they call the National Convention.

"Ultimately it comes down to the resilience, the determination, and the bravery of the people who have been marching."

Those words came from British Ambassador Mark Canning during the protest marches. As the monks' marched past the British Embassy, the crowd jolted in applause, knowing they had the support of the UK. Perhaps the crowd could see Canning peering down on them from the window above.

This was while the mood was still optimistic, hopeful and inspired. The world witnessed bravery with a drawn out tension that only became more sobering as each day passed. The truth of the matter is the chance of the military junta being removed from power is "99.99 percent not going to happen", says David Steinberg, a Burma expert from Georgetown University.

More that 2,000 monks have been imprisoned. The AAPP (Assistance Association for Political Prisoners) is adamantly concerned they are being tortured. At least 6,000 in all have been detained. Many of those who have been released have reported that dozens have been killed while in detention. Ko Win Shwe died during interrogation. He was a member of the NLD, the party of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Surinder Karar Singh (aka Ayea Mying, aka U Pancha) claims to have assisted in organizing the protective barrier of citizens surrounding the monks during the marches. He is rightly enflamed with the U.N., saying

"He (Mr Gambari) plans to come again in November. Whatever the regime told him, he did. While he was there, we were being shot, we were being detained. After he left, there was more rounding up of people."

Hundreds of monks have been isolated in subhuman conditions with no toilets, no water, and were forced to eat rice by hand after it had been thrown to the ground. If any of the young monks referred to himself as a monk, he would be beaten and told, "You are no longer a monk. You are just an ordinary man with a shaven head." It seems the SPDC has established the authority to strip the monks of their legitimacy. At times, the junta makes its aims extremely obvious in just this fashion.

The United Nation Security Council has handed down a "watered down" condemnation of the Burma junta.

"The Security Council calls on the government of Myanmar to take all necessary measures to address the political, economic, humanitarian and human rights issues that are the concern of its people and emphasizes that the future of Burma lies in the hands of all its people."

Some see potential progress in the move by the UNSC because China has signed on to the pact. But in reality the move is non-binding and leaves no lasting threat to China's economic interest in Burma.

The UNSC statement is essentially and ceremoniously nondescript. It is imitating a prelude with no movement to follow. What China and the Burma junta have in common is injustice for the sake of an economy based on immediate gratification.

The City of Beijing was blind to the so called (and over simplified) Saffron Revolution. The state controlled media abstained from broadcasting the peaceful protest marches. Yet the international community is calling on China, the junta's largest supporter, to step in. And it's about time. A stable Burma is fully in China's economic interest. Perhaps the threat of a democratic seize of power is too lucrative for China's regional status to digress from its politically impartial foothold.

The regime in Burma reacted with platitude to the UNSC's statement,

"Myanmar's current situation does not affect regional and international stability," said the statement, attributed to Col. Thant Shin. "However, we deeply regret that the U.N. Security Council has issued a statement contrary to the people's desires."

"The government of Myanmar will continue to implement the seven-step roadmap together with the people," the statement said, referring to the junta's plan that promises a new constitution and an eventual transition to democratic rule."

Veteran activist Aung Zaw believes we will see a second coming of support for Burma thanks to the adroit use of multimedia not available in 8-8-88.

"I have spoken to people [from the Burmese democracy movement] today and though they have said we are down, I think once they get past the initial dejection they will realize how much the world has learned about their suffering through being able to see the dramatic images and digital footage that have been broadcast worldwide."

Some may say - one would hope. I say - we can push for just that.

The construction of a new capital, Naypyidaw, and the proposed construction of an information technology capital, Yadanabon, along with significant pay raises for civil servants and the military have placed serious pressure on government reserves. The government typically addresses such deficits by printing more money, producing the significant inflationary pressures seen today.

- Economic Factors Behind the Myanmat Protest

The nations economic focus is on the export of it's resources. Burma's lacking domestic refinery capacity just adds to it's vexing need for foriegn currency. The superstitious "decision making process within the junta follows the familiar route of political considerations at the expense of sound domestic economic policy".

Earlier this year, Russian "nuclear equipment export monopoly AtomStroyExport forged an agreement to construct a nuclear research center in Myanmar".

Myanmar purchased 15 Russian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters for approximately US$150 million in 2001. Furthermore, it is negotiating with Russia's state-controlled arms exporter Rosoboronexport on the establishment of an air defense system using the Tor-M1 and Buk-M1-2 missile systems. These business dealings, with a special emphasis on the energy related deals, are especially important to Russia.

PetroChina beat out India interest, even after "the deal was sweetened with US$20 million in "soft credit" and the proposed construction of a power plant in Myanmar".

Foreign energy trade company Zarubezhneft, natural gas producer Itera, and Silver Wave Sputnik Petroleum are currently producing Myanmar's off-shore oil deposits alongside the Chinese company PetroChina

Demonstrating China's payoff for vetos at the United Nations Security Council, India's (Gas Authority of India Limited or GAIL) "preferential buyer" status was withdrawn from two blocks of Burma's offshore natural gas feilds.

The controlling interests in the two blocks are Daewoo International (60 percent), O.N.G.C. Videsh Ltd (20 percent), GAIL Ltd (10 percent) and Korea Gas Corporation (10 percent).

The Shwe Gas Project, led by Korea's Daewoo International, stands to earn the regime between US$12-17 billion. Last year, the regime earned approximately US$2.2 billion in gas sales to Thailand through the Thai company PTTEP.

These video's were taken from Burma Digest, a very reliable source for the latest from Burma. They go together very well because in the first video you can feel the tension, the full awareness of the risk they are taking.

In the second video we see that risk coming into being.

The image to the left was taken from the first meeting between Daw Suu and Gambari on Sept. 30th. She is clearly much more optimistic in this photo. Some say yellow is symbolic in support of the monks. In the following photo's, taken on Oct. 2nd, she is much more somber. I don't think I've ever seen a photo of Aung San Suu Kyi in such a way. Hteg Aung believes, she is sending a "a clear message to the world community: the generals' crack down on the Buddhist monks' peaceful demonstrations prove UN action on Burma is urgently needed."

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is claiming he will discuss Burma with the UNSC. The EU is claiming the uprising in Burma will not effect ASEAN free-trade talks. The United Nations is claiming to condemn the junta and is demanding an immediate investigation.

"The council calls on the government of Burma to allow Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, the Special Rapporteur on the situation of Human Rights, to visit Burma and investigate the situation," Aung Myo Min, a Burmese human rights activists, attending the special session on Burma at the council's fifth meeting, told Mizzima.

But at the same time the council's resolution does not have the authority to enforce an investigation if Than Shwe simply declines the offer. Meanwhile, the military has been conducting night raids and has already arrested at least 2000 monks.

Untill we see any realistic action being taken, the picture speaks for itself.

"[N]o matter the regime's physical power, in the end they can't stop the people; they can't stop freedom. We shall have our time."