Burma Dialogue

While it is still unclear if there was any truth to the conflicting reports that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi had been moved to a prison, even temporarily, U.N. Envoy Gambari DID meet with Suu Kyi in her Rangoon home.

Gambari has already met with several military officials and is expected to head to Naypyitaw to met with Than Shwe.

A SPLIT within Burma's ruling junta has emerged, with second-in-command General Maung Aye angered at the violent crackdown ordered by leading General Than Shwe and holding talks with imprisoned pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, it has been reported.

The Irrawaddy (website was down for some time after being hit with a conveniently timed virus) is reporting "Aung San Suu Kyi has been moved to Yemon military camp on the outskirts of Rangoon". Other reports are that she is being held at the notorious Insein prison.

Mizzima is reporting,

"Maung Aye and his loyalists are opposed to shooting into the crowd," a source close to the military hierarchy told Mizzima referring to the major differences that the head of junta Senior General Than Shwe and his second-in-command, Vice-Senior General Maung Aye have over the brutal crack down on protesters in Burma.

An email from the research director of the Human Rights Documentation Unit of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma stated that,

Soldiers from LID #66 have turned their weapons against other SPDC soldiers and possibly police in North Okkalappa township in Rangoon and are defending the protesters. At present unsure how many soldiers involved. Some reports cite "heavy shooting" in the area.

Other unconfirmed reports have stated that soldiers from LID #33 in Mandalay have refused orders to act against protesters. Some reports claim that many soldiers remained in their barracks. More recent reports now maintain that soldiers from LID #99 now being sent there to confront them.

Ibrahim Gambari, U.N. envoy for Burma, has again been sent to hold discussions in the military in the new isolated capital, Naypyidaw. This is the ideal time to demand to meet with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to confirm that she is allright but that is more than likely not going to happen at this point.

The U.N. has been split over how to respond to the situation in Myanmar. A released statement "made no mention of the violence" occurring there.

The U.S. has given an equally unmotivated and dodgy statement on the violence in Burma,

suggest[ing] the goal should be the generals' departure from power, perhaps to exile in China, opening the way for a democratic government. But the National Council of the Union of Burma, a main exile umbrella group based in Thailand, said its goal at this stage was less ambitious: national dialogue between the military junta and other political forces in the country.

Of course, the U.S. is well aware the most realistic outcome in Burma today is a rotation in military command. Innocent people are losing their lives asking for "what 50 million people of Burma want today, not tomorrow".

"Grass-roots revolutions against dictatorships are unpredictable creatures. And as the example of Tiananmen Square shows, ruthless dictatorial regimes can sometimes nip such popular movements in the bud with one single, bloody pogrom."

I'm not sure I like the title "Saffron Revolution". It seem to...oversimplify, I guess. But anything is good that brings attention and revolution catch phrases typically do a good job of just that. What's important is that Burma is finally getting that attention it deserves. For the moment at least.

The 8-8-88 protest created a generation of those who would fight for freedom and democracy in Burma. Over the last 20 years they have languished in prisons for speaking out, they have worked with international NGO's to bring aid and attention to refugees, and they have suffered along side their people - as has Aung San Suu Kyi - waiting for eventual resolution. Is this the eclipse? No one would know the answer to that question.

But perhaps in an age when internationalism and humanist consciousness is catching up with the realities of the world population, we can begin to see a turning point in greater awareness. Gradually the protest built up to 100,000 strong. I thought for a time the junta's reaction would be fairly limited and not a repeat of 8888. I was wrong. I might have simply been inspired by the walking monks, as were the public which eventually joined them.

At first the monks limited themselves to chanting prayers and discouraged the public from joining them. But on September 22nd a hitherto unknown group, the All Burma Monks' Alliance, called on people to "struggle peacefully against the evil military dictatorship". After this, large numbers of ordinary Burmese joined in, many linking hands along the route of the monks' procession. The monks' chants became overtly political, including the cry, "democracy, democracy".

Sunai Phasuk, a consultant for Human Rights Watch in Bangkok, outlined how the monks reaction to yet another fuel price hike is directly related to the poverty of the public, saying "The monks are an economic barometer in Burma [...] They feel the deterioration of the economy and the hardship of their followers."
(PINR has an in depth report on the The Economic Factors Behind the Myanmar Protests)

The crowds continued to grow -

I have my whole family in burma and I am calling them every day. They told me that everyone who could afford it is buying rice, oil and condiments to store at home. My cousins and sisters are not attending school. Everybody is living in fear. Dee, Boston, US

I witnessed the big protests in Rangoon today. I am really sorry for our country and our people because we are under the control of the wicked junta. We haven't got arms, we wish for peace, a better future and democracy. We are hoping that the UN security council will put a pressure on the junta. Kyi Kyi, Rangoon

Noble Prize Laureate Archbishop Desmond Tutu of South Africa, who commissioned the Threat to Peace report (along with Vaclav Havel), stated "Victory is assured. They are on the winning side, the side of freedom."

Hopefully, but unlikely, the international community will bring more pressure on supporters of the junta, China and India. Beijing, host of the next summer Olympic games, is already under the microscope of many international NGO's for the lack of action in Sudan despite the position of influence China holds there. But no one expects this to bring great change in Burma. After all, it is still unclear if this was an uprising of hope, or desperation.

Hundreds of monks marched to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's home giving her the opportunity to step out of confines and greet to electrified crowd. She spoke for about 15 minutes and is reported to have, at one point, broke out in tears.

Over the last four days, the peaceful marches by thousands of monks have been gaining more and more support, from other monks as well as the public.

An alms boycott, "pata nikkujjana kamma" - withholding recognition from members of the military has even gained the support from the wife of Than Shwe!

There has long been the traditional belief that monks do not get involved in politics. But the debate of action vs. inaction is as old as Buddhism itself. This clash of ideas continues as early on the current wave of peaceful protest, more conservative monks pleaded for the others not to march. But instead their numbers continue to increase.

This article (pdf), The Idea of Freedom in Burma and Thought of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, wonderfully illustrates how there is no condriction between Buddhism and peaceful protest in the fight for freedom and democracy.

This was all done with prefect timing. The junta threaten, and prepared to stop the marches before they began, even establishing a wanted list - with face photo's - of those known to be willing to march despite the threat of years of dark prisons.

But for now, the advantage seems to be with the people. The monks are too respected for an outright penetration of the protest by the military and would likely lead to a more grand uprising. In 1996 the junta was doing everything they could think of to try to buy their support after student demonstrations which led to the junta shutting down universities.

This is the largest uprising since 8-8-88. Email chatter indicated something was set to happen, as Sept 18 marked the 19th anniversary of the SLORC coup. Reports of marches across Burma the last week have varied from a few hundred to a few thousand, and a few times I read in numbers up to 10,000. But those kind of numbers have been difficult to confirm from others reports.

ALTSEAN-BURMA has an interactive map (image below is not it) of the protest throughout Burma in the last two months. This comes with facts on arrest and who marched.

Via Asia-Pacific Peoples' Partnership on Burma

In Burma, state television issued a warning against the continuing protest that "action would be taken", though no specific details were given. The junta blamed Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as well as the West for the uprising that started three weeks ago after the fuel price hike. The junta is also comparing it to 8-8-88. But this is not meant to be flattering, it is intended to be a warning.

These threats are real and are being foreshadowed in the sentencing of six labor activist who had nothing to do with the recent protest walks, each receiving 28 years for organizing a seminar earlier this year.

It seems to me that in the last 6 to 12 months, activist have been claiming more and more that this would be coming. Some are saying this is just the beginning which is easy to believe with the 20 year anniversary of 8-8-88 now less than a year away. There will be a price to pay for those who choose to march, but from the beginning three weeks ago, no one has hid their face from the cameras.

Since August 19, 88 Generation and others have been protesting peacefully, yet bravely across Burma in response to the "massive rise in fuel and transprtation fees". The junta has been using hired thugs instead of the army to crack down on dissent, even recruiting children,

"On August 25 in Shan State, near the town of Muse, five young Kachin school boys aged 14, 15, and 16, were "recruited" with the use of force by the Burmese army. "

"The military junta then emptied jails in anticipation of arresting dissenters and mobilized the USDA and Swan Aah Shin, a group essentially of junta-backed thugs. Arrests of activists, including 88 Generation students and dissidents, began on Aug. 22."

Reuters has said "paid gangs" are preventing journalist from covering the protest. The junta annouced 88 Generation protesters would be prosecuted and and face up to 20 years in prison. A small group of protesters "eluded several junta thugs" and marched in Kyaukse, Than Shwe's home town. Arrest are said to have reached over 100 and photographs of protesters are being circulated to track them down.