Burma Dialogue

News sites like S.H.A.N. have been reporting for the last year that the Burma military have been working on such a project, well now it is quite forwardly official, with the assistance of Russia. This cooperation with Russia will help aid the growing international cooperation with Burma so they are no longer the daughter of China, and more of a legitimate investment for the international community. You can see my last post for a few opinions on how that is happening.

The U.S. State Dept. deputy spokesman Tom Casey stated semi-resolute disapproval of the plans citing lack of accounting and security

This is clearly a huge development, one wich will certainly introduce most of the world to Burma
but it is of very little surprise to the those of us who follow developments in Burma.

Reports state,

a 10-megawatt light-water research reactor will be built and that 300 to 350 specialists will be trained to run the nuclear center, which will be located in the “central Burma township of Pwint Phyu in Magwe Division” and is “protected naturally by the Arakan mountain range to the west and the Irrawaddy River to the east".

Some are maintaining a calm approach to the matter,

One thing to keep in mind: Talks over the reactor are "only preliminary."

I would say such hopes show a lack of familiarity with the junta.

The week Bush expressed his intentions to extend sanctions on Burma for another year. This looks more and more to me like a cyclic permissiveness. (see last post for explaination).

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's current term of house arrest ends May 27 with still no word from the junta on what they will do. More that 50 world leaders have united in a call for her release.

I have put off writing this post for a couple of days, because quite frankly it is a mouthful. Many issues will be taken up regarding Burma in the coming days and weeks and everyone has their hand in the pot; UE, UK, US, ASEAN and perhaps the UN. On the immediate surface these issues may not sound completely related but I would argue they are, all the while hoping I don't sound like a paranoid activist who has completely lost faith in the democratic establishment. I may seem to drift a few places, but I will try to bring it all together.

Let's start with trade.

The EU has agreed to hold FTA discussions with ASEAN as a bloc. The Burma junta will take part in these talks.

Trade between the two groupings amounted to nearly 140 billion dollars in 2005.

The EU is maintaining that they will not deal with Burma directly. But it could be argued that the door has been opened. Clearly there is opposition,

"The cause of Burma's political dilemma is that the military is still ignoring the role of representatives chosen by the people in democratic elections," Dr San Aung, an exiled member of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), told The Irrawaddy. "We need a coordinated policy from the international community to push Burmese generals to create more democratization."

The same week, the UK has reopened the debate on sanctions. For the most part, they are in line with what many activists have been saying for some time.

The British sanctions policy was not targeted specifically at the regime, the committee found--and, as a result, "hits the economy generally and consequently hurts the ordinary Burmese people."
...
The committee thought sanctions "may even be counterproductive when a target regime responds by increasing its internal control over resources."

So does this mean that the UK will make greater effort for a more constructive and dynamic approach which does target the junta? I have decided I am against the current sanctions, for the reasons stated. The junta is only empowered by their isolation, and that isolation is dwindling as others, such as India, follow China's lead and invest and arm the Burma military. China is important, a year or two ago the EU came under a storm of criticism when they moved to drop the arms embargo against China. This only confirms what China wants, to be Accepted as the dominant power in SE Asia on an international basis, this brings in trade. Money is more powerful than morals and there is money to be made in Burma, China and India are demonstrating just that. Despite the inaccuracy of currency rates the Burmese Kyat is almost equal to the U.S. dollar right now, a few thousand times more valuable then a couple years ago, though that may fluctuate dramatically.

And U.S. support for sanction makes no sense when our largest trading partner (also our largest trade deficit) is China which is the life line to fanatical oppression.

Still, it's true, sanctions are not effective. Does that mean the international establishment will become more productive or exploit that fact to cash in on SE Asia? I personally feel that has been China's strategy for some time now, lure in Europe. They are not slow to build up an international base to legitimize such actions. No one is aggressively engaging with Africa like China.

Also, It seems more to me like it is so easy to support sanctions just because no one has any better idea's. But it also seems like that makes sanctions an easy way for the US to stand behind ideas of Democracy without it affecting our wallet - regardless of the actual outcomes.

What is the U.S. up to right now? They have dipped their toes into the matter just enough to get the small-pond-like ripples in the media...with the obvious.

The State Dept. has released a statement just ahead of the end of Daw Suu Kyi's current sentence under house arrest - Human Rights Experts Urge Release of Aung San Suu Kyi. Plus the new U.S. Ambassador to the UN is saying the U.S. is not done taking the issue of Burma to the UNSC, despite the fact that the last attempt was perhaps one of the most futile in UN history. We all knew Russia and China would veto, but we try to stay optimistic and take advantage of any movement as a reason to discuss the issue. I'm sorry I have lost my "cup half full' outlook for this post.

So the final question is, with everything going the junta's way, will they feel more confident extending Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's sentence, or, might they just release her in hopes of gaining more of what their are getting, authentication.

88 student leaders are stating that the double veto by China and Russia at the UNSC has emboldened the junta to go after human rights activist. Though, it may be said, that the last few months have seen an increase in protest demonstrations and it is always difficult to measure the full extent to which the junta is enforcing censorship in the closed off nation.

“It is like China and Russia have encouraged the military junta to rampantly suppress democracy activists. So, it is high time that the international community raises the question to the two veto wielding countries, and how they intend to solve the problems in Burma,” Min Ko Naing added.

U Myint Thein, the NLD spokesperson also said the junta, following the double veto by China and Russia at the Security Council, has enforced a violent crackdown on activists.

However, the Rangoon based self-styled nationalist, U Win Naing said, “The junta’s stepped up crackdown on activists and political dissidence are not the results of the Russia, China veto at the Security Council but the junta’s fear of a public uprising due to the present circumstances that the people are facing.”

“As Burma’s socio-economy scenario deteriorates day by day and poverty increases, an uprising or unrest among the people is possible. The junta fears this, so, they are using power to violently crackdown on dissidents,” added U Win Naing.

A few weeks ago two men were attacked by a crowd of what clearly looks to have been orchestrated by the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), which are local extensions of the junta. Members and their families receive the benefit of not being so easily subject to sporadic searches, charges, extortion and forced labor.

Another incident in March demonstrates how rule of law is nonexistent, when a 65-year-old man, who does not appear to be identified as a known activist, was imprisoned for "defacing a copy of an official government newspaper". U Thein Zan was denied bail,

despite testimonies from two government officials confirming U Thein Zan posed little threat to the community. ... U Thein Zan reportedly wrote "Are you sure, Maung Kalu", a common headline on pro-military propaganda articles, over the top of a copy of the state-run Myanmar Ahlin newspaper he had stuck on his wall after becoming enraged by recent commodity price rises.

In a case of belligerent targeting of human rights activist, in March

Human rights activists Ko Aung Kyaw Soe, Ko Aye Lwin and Ko Yin Kyi were reportedly arrested by the Burmese authorities yesterday in relation to charges of violating guest registration laws.

Despite all this a Free Daw Suu campaign is reportedly picking up steam as May has been declared a month of campaigning by the NLD. The end of May will mark the 4th anniversary of the last sentence to house arrest, which the junta referred to as "protective custody" after a failed assassination attempt.