Burma Dialogue

The UN and scores of relief agencies, right this very moment, are prepared to act.

But the fundamental question is; What will the military junta in Burma do? Reports are coming out that the junta will accept relief assistance but this is unfortunately an uphill climb with a long history in Burma.

To what extent will relief organizations be allowed to assist?

Who will be permitted in Burma and who will not?

And most importantly, for those aid groups allowed in Burma, how much unrestricted time will they have before they are kicked out?

This is the historical record for the generals treatment of humanitarian aid workers. It would seem that even though this is a devastation of a natural course, that wouldn't change.

it is wise never to overestimate the common sense or underestimate the callousness of this, one of the world's most paranoid regimes.

Burma reportedly will also be going ahead with the referendum vote. This is very much in the junta's character. In fact, it is to their advantage. While the spotlight is focused on those who so desperately need help, criticism of the referendum will more easily be overlooked by a world with a familiar tendency to do so all the same. How can the international community not recognize this? How much effort can we expect from the generals to see to the needs of those effected by cyclone Nargis when the military has been systematically intimidating the public to support the referendum.

Intimidation in Burma is rather simple to do. Not much has to be suggested for one's mind to consider the endless techniques of brutal treament from the junta. The militaries practices and the abandonment of the people in Burma, is not unlike, the aftermath of a cyclone.

I have long held deep, deep, yes deep philosophical differences with the US Campaign for Burma for many reasons. Their methods of promoting awareness of the situation in Burma in the past have always seemed to be, trivial, to put it nicely. And the larger question looms, What do they do with all the cash donations their organization raises? I'm not sure, but I am confident it could be put to better use to actually make a difference on the ground and in the lives of those who have suffered at the hands of the junta. Instead, the US Campaign for Burma mostly suffers from the counterproductivity of any other bureaucracy.

But, the reality is, these are the types of institutions which rise to the top. Their latest project has been a collection of star voices, conceding infotainment to spread the word. Even I have to admit, it's better than nothing. And maybe they are right, perhaps this is the best way to penetrate the American ear. How embarrassing that is.

More of these video's can be found at http://www.burmaitcantwait.org/

The U.S. State Department's Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2007 has been released.

"Throughout the year, the regime continued to commit extrajudicial killings and was responsible for disappearances, arbitrary and indefinite detentions, rape, and torture," the report said.

To follow this, the Burma Army renewed attacks on civilians in northern Karen State this month.

Daw Suu Kyi and her party the NLD has been banned from running in the 2010 elections. This comes to no surprise to anyone, as we have known all along the so called "road map to democracy" has always been a sham and is under the tight puppetry of the Burma generals.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's release for the ocassion of International Women's Day.

Information Minister Brigadier General Kyaw Hsan has had bitter words for the UN and the international community to allow free and fair elections but maintains that everything will according to what has already been planned, adding

"We shall not accept any attempt to hinder or reverse the process of the seven-step road map. However, we will heartily welcome the positive suggestions of the UN to help implement the seven-step road map,"

He also continued to accuse Daw Suu Kyi of not living up to her part of the talks. According to the junta, meeting with Suu Kyi where supposed to be followed by her turning away from her support for sanctions against Burma. She hasn't budged.

The country's last election was in 1990, but the military refused to hand over power when Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party won. Suu Kyi, a Nobel peace prize winner, has been in prison or under house arrest for more than 12 of the past 18 years. So what will be different this time?

An official statement, released on state radio and television on Saturday, said that "the time has now come to change from military rule to democratic civilian rule".

An NLD spokeman says the convention is

a front to put a civilian face on military rule. Suu Kyi has criticized the process because it excludes pro-democracy parties and representatives of Myanmar's numerous ethnic groups.

According to the Chiang Mai-based academic Win Min,

"It seems that General Than Shwe has changed his mind and is no longer using the seven-point road map to buy time, but instead it is now central to his efforts to overcome both internal and international pressures,"

"Internally the generals may be worried about further mass unrest, and are using the promise of elections to cool people down and encourage them not to do demonstrate, but to wait and see," he said. "The junta promised elections after crackdown on the 8-8-88 mass movement for the same reason."

"Than Shwe has been constantly considering all his options and examining all the possible scenarios in order to have a strategic plan which will ensure he retains power and protects his family's interests in the long-run," said a senior source in the new capital Naypitdaw who is close to the military leader. "For sometime the roadmap was a back-up strategy, but after the crackdown on the protests last year, it became the main option to keep political control."

Win Min also stated,

"I don't see a genuine willingness to go back to democracy," said Win Min, a lecturer in contemporary Burmese politics at Payap University in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai. "If they wanted to go toward democracy they wouldn't have to keep arresting democracy activists. And they would release Aung San Suu Kyi."

What are the locals saying?

"I am not interested in their referendum because the results are known already,'' said 48-year old noodle salad seller Mar Mar Aye, echoing the popular belief that the government is confident its constitution will be approved.

It may be a tactic by the military to ease international pressure to reform after it violently suppressed pro-democracy demonstrations in what was coined the Saffron Revolution. The crackdown on peaceful protest marches led by Buddhist monks killed at least 31 people and injured many more with an unknown number of arrests.

Extra:
TIMELINE: Myanmar's slow road to a new constitution
Key facts about Myanmar, Asia's troubled state

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi once stated

I have always asked for dialogue..But dialogue is not a debate. There will be disagreements and arguments. Dialogue does not involve winners and losers. It is not a question of losing face. It involves finding the best solutions for the country.

After a rare meeting with fellow NLD members this week Daw Suu Kyi expressed dissastifaction over the current level of progress toward reformation. She was taken on Wednesday at approximately 1 p.m. from her lakeside villa on Rangoon's University Avenue to a military guest house. She last meet with fellow NLD members in Novermber.

She stated she was dissatified with the currect pace of talks. They reportedly meet for 90 minutes.

Aung San Suu Kyi said, while the meetings, both with the NLD leaders and Aung Kyi, do not show any sign of progress, "Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst,"

The government has also further tightened restitricted on NGO's and relief organization attempting to operate in Burma. A "new directive literally controls the movement of aid groups". All visits by expatriats must be monitered by liasons as all times. The efficiency of these organizations has been greatly compromised.

As stated in a new report on the September Uprising

The international community has no serious intentions and [...] serious intervention will not be fortcoming.

The report goes on to state

People throughout Myanmar are acutely aware of any sort of international interest in, and support for, their struggle for basic human rights. Yet time and again they have been let down by the global community.

At the closeing of the report,

The notion of "contructive dialgoue" is anyhow spurious.

The Myanmar government accelerated continuous arrest since the September Uprising according to a recent Amnesty International report. They state that there have been 96 arrests since 1 November 2007. At least 700 were arrested in connection with the uprising adding to more than 1,150 arrest before the demonstrations

Western leaders will try to address the problem,

In a joint appeal, foreign ministers from the US, UK and France said the need for "progress towards a transition to democracy and improved human rights in Burma" would be a priority at this years' World Economic Forum in Davos.

After his last visit to Myanmar in early November, U.N. special envoy Ibrahim Gambari said he had received assurances the crackdown which outraged the world and triggered tougher Western sanctions would stop.

During Ibrahim Gambari's last visit to Myanmar he was assured the arrest would stop under the threat of tougher Western sanctions but typically the junta continued their routine of arbitrary arrest and seeking out political activist to silence and voice of dissent.

Amnesty International has confirmed the following arrests in the months after the uprising

November arrests - 45 total

On 2 November, National League for Democracy (NLD) members Aung Kyaw Moe and Tin Yu were arrested.
On 4 November, NLD member Zaw Zaw was arrested at a coffee shop in Yangon's Kyeemyindaing Township.
On 4 November, U Gambira, head of the newly-formed All-Burma Monks Alliance and a leader of the protests, was arrested and reportedly charged with treason, while two of his family members previously detained as 'hostages' in an attempt to force him out of hiding, have been kept in detention.
On 5 November, U Khaymarwuntha, a 20-year-old monk from Yangon's Zantila Kamahtan monastery, was arrested for his involvement in the September demonstrations.
On 12 November, four women and an elderly man were arrested for campaigning against the dam project on the Irrawaddy River in Kachin State. They were freed from a police station two days later.
On 13 November, Su Su Nway, a member of the youth wing of the main opposition NLD party, was arrested during the visit of the UN Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Myanmar to the country. Fellow youth activist Bo Bo Win Hlaing was arrested along with her while putting up anti-government posters.
On 14 November, at least three people were arrested in a fruit and vegetable market in Yangon for passing out anti-government pamphlets.
On 15 November, authorities raided a monastery in Sittwe, located in western Rakhine State, and arrested monk U Than Rama, wanted for his involvement in the September protests there. He was reportedly beaten during the raid and his whereabouts remains unknown.
On 15 November, a monk was beaten and taken into custody when the Aung Dhamma Pala monastery in Yangon was raided.
On 19 November, Ray Thein (alias Bu Maung), an NLD Secretary in Rakhine State, was re-arrested after being briefly detained in September for holding an anti-junta demonstration.
On 20 November, senior NLD member Myint Naing was detained.
On 20 November, politician Soe Win was arrested.
On 20 November, ethnic Arakanese leader U Tin Ohn was detained and his whereabouts remains unknown. Other ethnic leaders, including Arakanese Cin Sian Thang and U Aye Thar Aung; Naing Ngwe Thein from the Mon National Democracy Front; and Kachin political leader U Hkun Htoo, were rounded up as well on 20 and 21 November but were released after questioning.
On 24 November, eight members of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) were arrested, likely due to KIO's refusal to accede to the government's demand that they publicly renounce the November statement by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
On 26 November, Aung Zaw Oo, a member of the Human Rights Defenders and Promoters group, was arrested while sitting in a teashop in downtown Yangon, likely on account of his involvement in planning events for International Human Rights Day on 10 December.
On 26 November, Rakhine State NLD chairman San Shwe Tun was re-arrested after being released from Akyab prison on 5 November after serving a three-year jail term.
On 27 November, Win Maw, lead guitarist in the popular Shwe Thansin band, Myat San, a former long-term political prisoner and a member of the Tri-Colour Students Group and Aung Aung, a friend of the two men, were arrested in a Yangon tea shop.
On 27 November, Win Maung, an SPDC village secretary from Rakhine State, was arrested for his involvement in the September protests.
On 28 November, U Tin Hla, member of the Federation of Trade Unions-Burma (FTUB) and the Burma Railway Union, was arrested along with his family for allegedly organising railway workers and encouraging them to join the rallies in September. His wife and two children were released after five days.
On 28 November, U Khin Hla, an NLD secretary in Rakhine State, was arrested.
In November, a Burmese rapper was arrested for paying tribute at a concert to the monks who led September's demonstrations.

December arrests - 29 total

On 2 December, Hajee Amir Hakim, a 52-year-old man from Rakhine State, was arrested for writing a letter to the BBC detailing SPDC human rights abuses against Rohingya minority. He was released the following day after his relatives bribed a police officer.
On 2 December, Aung Zaw Win, a lay person, was arrested while inquiring about evicted monks.
On 14 December, Khin Moe Aye, Kyaw Soe, Zaw Min, Min Min Soe, Htun Htun Win and Myo Yan Naung Thein, all former political prisoners and current members of the 88 Generation Students groups, were arrested for being linked to the activists who filmed the September protests and spoke to exiled media.
In mid-December, seven activists, including former political prisoners Aung Aung, Aung Gyi, Myat Hsan and Win Maw, were arrested for trying to send video footage of the September demonstrations to international media.
On 17-18 December, five NLD members were arrested in Rakhine State for organizing poster and graffiti campaigns against the government.
On 18 December, nine members of the Shan State Nationalities Liberation Organisation, including battalion commander major Bar Pray (alias Ye Naing), were arrested, reportedly for political reasons.

January arrests - 22 total

On 2 January, former student activists Ko Ko Maung and Ko Min Han was arrested.
On 2 January, NLD members Dr. Aung Moe Nyo, Htay Myint, Sein Win, Than Htun, U Ko Oo and Nay Myo Kyaw were arrested in Magwe division, reportedly to stop them from attending independence day celebrations in a nearby township.
On 3 January, two NLD youth members were arrested.
On 3 January, a monk and two laymen were arrested in Yangon during a house raid in search of an activist.
On 4 January, Htet Htet Aung, Ko Kyaw Kyaw and Kyaw Zin Win, all NLD youth members, were arrested.
On 13 January, U Par Lay and U Maung Soe were arrested.
On 15 January, two NLD youth wing members, Soe Min Oo and Kalar Shae, were arrested in Rakhine State after shouting slogans such as 'Restore Democracy', 'Release political prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi', and 'Reduce Commodity Prices'.
On 15 January, Saw Wai, poet and leader of an organization established by artists to care for orphans of AIDS victims, was arrested after authorities deciphered part of his "February 14" poem that contained a hidden message criticizing Senior General Than Shwe.
In January, Ko Aung Gyi, former editor of the sports magazine 90 Minutes, was arrested in Yangon.

UNICEF's new State of the World's Children 2008 report states that some 400 children die everyday in Burma from preventable diseases

The figures are the second-worst mortality rate for children in Asia except for Afghanistan.

Dr Osamu Kunii, a nutrition expert in Burma for the UN, said there were between 100,000 to 150,000 child deaths per year in the country - or between 270 and 400 daily.

He was speaking at a briefing by Unicef of its annual report - The State of the World's Children.

The mortality rate is a critical indicator of the well-being of children.

About 21% of child deaths in Burma are caused by acute respiratory infection, followed by pneumonia, diarrhoea and septicaemia.

A recent report also revealed Burma is now suspected of having the largest amount of child soldiers in the world. Just yesterday four children were sold to an army recruiter.

Myanmar is going "downhill on all fronts,"

Says a senior US diplomat

"The regime in Burma is absolutely refusing to take any positive steps at all, either in response to its own people or to the international community," said US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Scot Marciel.

"It should be a cause of concern for everybody because the way Burma is going under this regime and its policies is sort of downhill on all fronts," he told a media briefing during a Hanoi stop on a regional tour.

"We talk about it mostly in terms of human rights and democracy and that's critically important to us, but it's beyond that," he said. "The economy is going downhill, the education system is getting ruined.

"The health care system isn't functioning, ... you're getting more and more cases of resistant strains of tuberculosis and malaria out of Burma. You've got refugee flows out of Burma. It's just a whole series of problems."

Burma's military junta is one of the world's most brutal authoritarian regimes. The government of Burma routinely and systematically violates the human rights and civil liberties of its citizens. Yet it would not have survived this long without assistance from other nations. The People's Republic of China, which has provided massive military and economic aid, and Russia, which has provided cover at the U.N. Security Council, are the junta's primary enablers.

In addition to strengthening U.S. unilateral sanc­tions against the military junta, the United States should lead an effort to isolate Burma diplomatically at the United Nations and should encourage the Asso­ciation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to act against the regime. Until China, Russia, and the ASEAN nations make democratic reconciliation in Burma a priority in their relations with the junta, the situation in Burma will not improve.

Last week Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was permitted out of her home and meet with government appointed liaison Aung Kyi for the first time in nearly two months. Segments of the meeting were televised by the details of what took place at the meeting were not released. This was their fourth meeting. Daw Suu Kyi was allowed to meet with NLD members in November but not since.

Suu Kyi has said her previous meetings with Aung Kyi were constructive and she was ready to work with the military to establish proper negotiations.

But critics say the regime is sending mixed signals.

Than Shwe has repeatedly insisted the only path to political reform is via the junta's own "roadmap to democracy," suggesting that any talks would have to take place within that framework.

The World Food Program is reporting that Burma's food shortage is due to the military governments restrictions on transportation.

"The transportation system is very much a closed...state-regulated, state-administered program," he said. "So much of our food is transferred and transported by companies and transport companies that are owned by the government and the ruling elite."

Burma pro-democracy organizations are saying they are extremely underfunded.

During the "Saffron Revolution" in September, several dissident groups based on the Thai border faced serious funding shortages, he said. Worse still, no emergency funds were available to border pro-democracy groups that have connections with activists and monks inside Burma. ... During the crisis, some activists inside Burma said they could accomplish more if they had much needed assistance. In the past, some prominent activists were arrested simply because they could not afford transportation fees or money to rent a safe place to hide.

In the past two months the Burmese Army's presence in Karen state has gone up to over 90 battalions.

With the number of soldiers ranging between 11,000 to 14,000 operating in three Karen districts - Papun, Nyaunglebin, and Taungoo - the number of internally displaced persons in the three districts have gone up to 25,000, the report said.

The FBR said with the increase of Burmese Army battalions in Karen state since 2006, human rights violations have escalated and landmines have filled the area, causing uncalled for destruction in the villages and killing local residents.

According to Saw Hla Henry, secretary of the Committee for Internally Displaced Karen People (CIDKP), over the last two months the number of internally displaced people has increased to 10,000.

It is sad that there is no sign of freedom even in time of 60th Independence Anniversary. The Junta controls everything now. In these days, because of the experiences of the September Saffron Revolution, all news media in Burma is strictly censored and tightly controlled by the military junta. All daily newspapers, radio and television stations are under regime's supervision.

The 60th Independence Anniversary in Burma was just like any other day. Six members of the NLD were detained to repress true rememberence of Gen. Aung San who is all but written out of the history books in Burma.

As Kyaw Zwa Moe, a journalist from Irrawaddy magazine, puts it

"Independence didn't bring liberty, prosperity or happiness to the Burmese people," he said.

"When we talk to young people in Rangoon and in the country, they don't even notice today is Independence Day."

There is truly nothing to celebrate and the restrictive military government is closing off it's people from the world more and more every day.

Prior to the Independence Day, Burma's military junta surprisingly made a futile attempt to control sources of information that the country's general public keep going to access. Without earlier warning, the military junta has instructed to the satellite dish owners to follow a verbal order imposing a huge amount of 1 million kyat for the annual satellite television tax. The order has been taken place as an observable jab to prevent people watching international news broadcasts. The action signals that Burma's Independence is non-existing now.

Dish owners who have to pay a 6,000 kyat ($ 5) license fee in last year were informed that the fee for dishes had been unexpectedly raised to 1 million kyat, about ten times average income of a government senior officer.

Last week a newly formed umbrella group, the Steering Committee of Mass Movement or SCMM, issued an open letter to the government calling for the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners including those arrested during the September uprising.

"If we start genuine dialogue one day earlier, the country will benefit by one day; but the country will fail if the talks are delayed," said the umbrella group in the open letter. "So we are willing to work together with a constructive attitude and approach to meaningful and inclusive dialogue as soon as possible."

The group is comprised of 12 pro-democracy and professional groups, including the Alliance of All Burmese Buddhist Monks, the 88 Generation Students group, the All Burma Federation of Student Unions, the Burma Muslim League for Peace, the Burma Lawyers' Union, the New Generation Journalists Union (Burma), the Organizing Committee of Mass Movement (Mandalay), the Committee of Mass Movement (Rangoon Division), and The Association of Writers and Artists.

There is still some Burmese language radio stations - BBC, VOA, Radio Free Asia and Democratic Voice of Burma. Ironically cheap radio's from China make these programs easily available in Burma.

Gen. Than Shwe did not attend ceremonies but ordered a message to be released to the public calling for unity under the "roadmap to democracy". A plan which only tightens the generals grip on power while pacifying international critics lacking a backbone to take more serious action, or who have willingly put themselves in a position to have their hands tied by Russian and Chinese veto's on the floor the of the United Nations Security Council.